GENERAL YADLIN : ISRAEL’S DETERRENCE ABILITY IS FADING
Gaza, 28 Safar 1436H/21 December 2014M (MINA) – The strategic studies centres in Israel are trying to understand the phenomena of Hamas and the Palestinian resistance in the Gaza Strip while the decision-makers in Tel Aviv are continuing to work on finding a solution to his problem which poses a strategic threat to the Jewish state.
This is due to the fact that Hamas has developed its missile capabilities, which astonished the Israeli state institutions during Hamas’s military parade in Gaza on the anniversary of its establishment.
The features of some Israeli approaches on how to deal with the matter of the Gaza Strip are coming to light through calls to strengthen deterrence in a variety of ways such as lifting the siege and treating Gaza as a state governed by Hamas, Middle East Monitor (MEMO) quoted by Mi’raj Islamic News Agency (MINA) as reporting, Saturday.
Other approaches include directing harsh blows to Hamas while supporting the PA in Ramallah, avoiding the re-occupation of the Gaza Strip, combatting arms smuggling to Gaza, and Israel’s preserving of its ability to contain the military confrontations within one front.
Regarding the first approach, reserve commander General Giora Eiland, former head of the National Security Council, called for dealing with Gaza as a state controlled by Hamas and lifting the naval blockade in exchange for a long-term ceasefire.
He said that this agreement should include guarantees from Egypt to maintain the stability and prevent the entry of weapons, while European Union Member States should be allowed to send ships escorted by police from their country to the port of Gaza. This aims to give Hamas something to lose if the ceasefire is violated, he said.
For his part, General Amos Yadlin, the former head of the IDF Military Intelligence Directorate (Aman), believes that given the fact that Hamas’s behaviour in Gaza is similar to the behaviour of a state, Israel must use this to demand that Hamas take responsibility for its actions.
However, Yadlin, who published a new study on Hamas on the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)’s website, affiliated with the University of Tel Aviv, is calling for an opposite approach to achieve this. B
y making sure that the Israeli strategy includes proving what he called the carrot to moderate elements in the Palestinian Authority in order to strengthen their position and direct extremely harsh blows against those he called Palestinian extremist terrorist elements in order to weaken them.
Moreover, Yadlin suggested that Israel declares aiming missiles at Tel Aviv a “red line” and avoids the option of disengaging from Gaza which has been an important part of Israel’s strategy that has served its national security.
In addition to this, he believes it is necessary to research how effective military operations and their results are on future PA elections and the prospects for the Palestinian reconciliation.
General Yadlin proposed the adoption of three main strategies to prevent the growth of the organisations’ strength, beginning with Hamas. First, preventing the entry of weapons into the Gaza Strip by means of ground invasions and attacking the path used to transport arms, starting from Iran, reaching to the Gaza Strip.
He believes that this task can be put in the hands of an external party such as the United Nations. At the same time, the head of the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) called on Israel to look into how much the Iron Dome is used due to the fact that it is costly ($50,000 per missile launched) compared to the relatively cheaper missiles.
He also added that Israel has been successful, since the 1973 war, in containing the military confrontations it has initiated within one front, and this is seen as a very important strategic achievement. However, it must not, in any way, be taken for granted.
Moreover, General Yadlin explained that the correct strategic interests and contact with neighbouring countries, as well as limited-scale operations and strong deterrence against “terrorist” organisations such as Hezbollah, have granted the Israeli army the freedom to work on one front.
It is worth noting that Israel is more concerned with the medium-term situation in the West Bank than it is with Gaza. If Israel had ensured a long-term ceasefire with Gaza, it would invest this in the West Bank in order to expand its settlements.
It would also invest in continued Palestinian divisions in order to weaken both disputing Palestinian sides and to receive more concessions from the PA, especially with regards to the issues of refugees, the borders and Jerusalem.
We can conclude from General Yadlin’s report that he believes that it has become clear to Israel that its ability to deter is fading with the emergence of more advanced weapons in the Gaza Strip and with the rise of missiles fired. (T/P002/R03)
Mi’raj Islamic News Agency (MINA)
