Gaza Death Toll 50% Higher Than Official Figures

London, MINA – The death toll in Gaza is about 50% higher than previously reported, according to a major new study published in The Lancet Global Health.

The study, cited by Middle East Monitor (MEMO) on Saturday, estimates that more than 75,000 Palestinians were killed during the first 15 months of Israel’s military campaign.

Researchers estimated 75,200 deaths due to violence between Oct. 7, 2023, and Jan. 5, 2025, compared with 49,090 recorded by Gaza’s Health Ministry for the same period.

The difference of roughly 26,000 deaths places the Lancet estimate about 50% above the official figure, with researchers concluding the Health Ministry count was 34.7% lower than their estimate.

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The findings come from the Gaza Mortality Survey, described by its authors as the first independent, population-representative household mortality survey conducted during the current war.

Researchers interviewed 2,000 households across 200 sampling units, documenting the vital status of 9,729 household members who were alive on Oct. 6, 2023, as well as newborns.

The study reported a 97.2% response rate and used statistical weighting to match Gaza’s prewar population distribution by age, sex, household size, and region of origin.

The authors estimated that the 75,200 violent deaths represent about 3.4% of Gaza’s prewar population. Women, children, and elderly people accounted for 56.2% of those killed, an estimated 42,200 deaths, including 22,800 children under 18.

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Although the overall total was substantially higher than Health Ministry figures, the study found the demographic patterns of those killed largely aligned with official reports, suggesting undercounting rather than fabrication.

Beyond violent deaths, researchers estimated 16,300 nonviolent deaths during the same period. After subtracting projected baseline mortality, this amounts to about 8,540 excess nonviolent deaths indirectly linked to the military campaign, including deaths tied to the collapse of health services, displacement, and deteriorating living conditions.

The study also estimated around 12,200 people remain missing, mostly men aged 18–64. Researchers cautioned that the true proportion of missing individuals who may have died is unknown, meaning the overall toll could be higher.

The authors said their findings contradict claims that Gaza casualty figures have been inflated. Instead, they concluded that the Health Ministry’s reporting appears conservative and that violent deaths substantially exceed official counts.[]

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Mi’raj News Agency (MINA)