Rome, MINA – A powerful El Niño weather event could push an additional nearly 49 million people into acute food insecurity across some of the world’s most vulnerable regions by the end of next year, the World Food Programme said on Wednesday.
Quoted from Ariana News, the U.N. agency said in a report that there was an 81% chance of a very strong El Niño event, with sea surface temperatures at their warmest levels since at least 1982 and potentially making it the strongest such event since 1950, Reuters reported.
El Niño, a periodic warming of ocean surface temperatures in the Pacific, alters global weather patterns and is often associated with drought in Southern Africa, delayed monsoons in parts of Asia and erratic rainfall elsewhere.
“These are events that in the past have triggered large-scale hunger,” Jean-Martin Bauer, director of WFP’s Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Service, told reporters.
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Based on an analysis of 45 countries deemed vulnerable to the adverse effects of El Niño, WFP estimates that the number of people facing acute food insecurity could rise by almost 49 million to a total of 274 million people, an increase of 22%, relative to the baseline population already experiencing crisis-level food insecurity or worse.
Central America and Southern Africa are expected to be among the hardest-hit regions, with the number of food-insecure people set to increase by 83% in Central America and nearly 75% in Southern Africa, the WFP report said.
Southern Africa as well as South America and the Caribbean could each see more than 12 million additional people fall into acute food insecurity.
Bauer said global food markets entered the El Niño period in a relatively strong position following good harvests in 2025, but warned that conflict in the Middle East and potential weather-related crop losses could put further upward pressure on prices.
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While past El Niño events have not typically triggered major global food price spikes, regional shortages and higher prices could worsen food access for vulnerable households, he said.
Funding cuts from U.S. and European donors in 2025 were also hampering efforts to monitor the developing crisis, with Bauer describing a growing drought of food-security data used to assess the impact of El Niño.
WFP conducted about 1.1 million household surveys in 2024, compared with about 800,000 in 2025, while data collection has fallen further this year due to funding restrictions.
“At a time when you have a risk like an El Niño, it is important to have high-frequency data collection,” Bauer said, warning that reduced monitoring could make it harder to identify emerging food crises quickly. []
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